So who are this year’s London Marathon favourites?
Let’s first look at the men’s and then the women’s contenders.
Based on a recent media press release, this year’s London Marathon men’s field includes:
- The current Olympic Marathon Champion
- The current World Champion
- The first four finishers from last year’s event
- Four of the first five finishes in the Olympic Marathon
- A former double World Marathon Champion
- A World Marathon Champion Bronze Medalist
- 5 of the top 15th quickest men of all time.
- A dual World Cross Country Champion and three time World Half Marathon Champion who is tipped as a future world record holder
Favourite To Win:
Martin Lel (Kenya)
Martin Lel is hands down favourite, if for no other reason than his amazing track record in this event, but also because he is regarded as one of the best marathon runners in the world at the moment.
Photo Credit: yaaaay
While he finished a disappointing 5th in the Beijing Olympic games, he has demonstrated recent good form in the Lisbon Half Marathon, winning the event in 59:56 from Jaouad Gharib (2nd in 59:59), Emmanuel Mutai (6th 60:45), Sammy Wanjiru (7th 61:25) and Felix Limo (15th 65:33).
The guy has a noted fast finish, blazing home last year in London, to defeat Sammy Wanjiru, then doing the same to Goumri in the New York Marathon. Few marathon runners can match Lel’s kick and if he is in the lead group with 1km to go, he will be odds on to win.
One shadow of doubt for Lel is an injury scare that was recently reported. Lel revealed in a press conference that he experienced a twinge in his hip in his Sunday training session and has had a precautionary MRI scan. While many believe this is seriously dashes his chances and that starting anything less than 100% against this field is a huge disadvantage, such niggles are common in athletes at Lel’s level and it may prove to be nothing.
Having said that, sub 3 minute/km over 42 kilometers will expose any weakness and if Lel does not finish the race it will not be a huge surprise either.
The problem for Lel is an injury-scare that has only come out this week. Apparently, he has hurt his hip, and though scans revealed no damage, he is going to be receiving treatment on it right up to the race. That is a big blow for his chances, because any weakness or injury will be exposed over 42 km of racing at 3 min/km. So starting at anything less than 100%, against this field, represents a real risk.
Sammy Wanjiru
No one who watched the Beijing Olympics will forget Sammy Wanjiru’s performance, which has been called the “Best marathon of all time” by many people who would know.
Sammy is also the world Half Marathon World Record Holder with a time of 58:33.
London will be Sammy’s fourth marathon, but will it be his best? He had a poor performance in Lisbon a month ago, finishing 7th in 61:25, well back from the eventual winner (Lel).
This may not be a big deal however, given that it was 5 weeks out from a Marathon, which means he may well have been running an insane amount of volume in training.
Never the less, all eyes will be on Sammy when the race kicks off and the Kenyan is very confident, claiming the world record is his goal for the race.
If Sammy is fully fit and runs a race that can match the Olympics, Sammy could well do what he says.
Zersenay Tadese (Eritrean)
An athlete with huge expectations in his first ever marathon is Zersenay Tadese. Coming from an exceptional background, with marjor performances on track, cross country and road, Tadese has achieved an Olympic podium place over 10,000m, has won the World Half Marathon championships for the last 3 years and is one of the few men who has beaten Kenenisa Bekele over his pet event, the World Cross Country titles (2007)
His list of credentials goes on, he is one of only four men to break 59 minutes for a half marathon, a very strong predictor of marathon performance, given that all the guys ahead of him have all proven themselves over the marathon, experts have high hopes for Tadese and some even predict he will go on to break the world record.
While, not favorite to win London, he is certainly one to watch and must surely have a shot at victory if the race goes well for him. Some even suggest he could run the fastest debut marathon in history, but we’ll wait and see.
Tsegaye Kebede (Ethiopia)
22-year-old Ethiopian
The Ethiopian Tsegaye Kebede is a small stocky runner who ran bravely to finish 3rd in the Beijing marathon at the 2008 Olympics.
With a personal best time of 2:06:10 in Fukuoka, he is not the fastest man in the field, but is in contention if he runs at his best. He seems to currently be improving with every run and may surprise a few people in this year’s race.
Emmanuel Mutai
Emmanuel Mutai has run 2:06 twice, last year finishing 4th in London ahead of American Ryan Hall and 6th in the Chicargo Marathon. He finished 6th in Lisbon last month ahead of Sammy Wanjiru which, if not one of the favorites, certainly puts him in contention for this year’s race.
Abderrahim Goumri (Morocco)
Moroccan athlete, Abderrahim Goumri has been “bridesmaid” on more than one occasion, finishing runner up to Martin Lel in 2007 in both the London and New York Marathons and again in the 2008 New York Marathon to Marilson dos Santos, however he has never failed to achieve a podium finish in a major marathon.
Could the London Marathon of 2009 be his lucky break? It may be, but everything would have to go his way for it to happen.
Jaoud Gharib
Finishing second in the Beijing Olympics in spectacular fashion, Jaoud Gharib is another name to watch and comes into London with form on the board finishing second to Martin Lel in Lisbon in a time of 59:59.
He seems to fare well in warm weather, so the cooler London climate may not suit him as well as it did in Beijing. Jaoud has finished in the top 4 in London 3 times, so expect him to mix it up with the other big name athletes in the field.
Others To Watch
Other noted runners who are not expected to win are:
- Atsushi Sato (Japan), 33, PB: 2:07:13
- Luke Kibet (Kenya), 26, PB: 2:08:52
- Felix Limo (Kenya), 28, PB: 2:06:14
- Henrick Ramaala, 37, PB: 2:06:55
- Yonas Kifle (Eritrean), 32, PB: 2:07:34
- Meb Keflezighi (USA), 33, PB: 2:09:52
So how will the 2009 London Marathon unfold? We’ll just have to wait and see. If Lel or Wanjiru are on song and the weather is good, the world record could easily fall, and Tadese, along with a host of other dark horses could well steal the show.
He certainly has the credentials to challenge these two and Lel and Wanjiru go into the race with a few question marks. Lel’s injury and Wanjiru’s recent poor half marathon performances.
Another good summary of the men’s contenders for the London Marathon 2009 can be found on the Science of Sport website as well as the LetsRun.com website.
Check it out here. London Marathon Men’s Predictions
And here. London Marathon 2009 Men’s Preview.
The Sport Science website will also presents a post-race summary of how the event unfolded. These are usually excellent and include detailed splits with commentary.
More information on the Runners in this year’s event can be found in the media guide here: London Marathon 2009 Athlete Profiles.
Nice post - Emmanuel Mutai ..Keep Posting
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